# Resolution Watch

> Resolution Watch publishes canonical living references — one URL per measured on-chain fact, updated in place with methodology and history. Auditor-grade: descriptive base-rate facts, never predictions, never accusations.

## Reference

- [Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective ones](/reference/criterion-clarity): On Polymarket, markets with a subjective resolution criterion dispute more than objective ones in both samples (high-volume: 27.4% vs 1.4%; chronological: 1.7% vs 0.6%). Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.
- [Dispute rank and flip rank diverge by category](/reference/dispute-vs-flip): On Polymarket, dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders: Geopolitics disputes most but flips only 5.9%; Sports rarely disputes but flips 38% when it does.
- [Most UMA disputes confirm — they don't reverse](/reference/flip-rate): Of 432 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original answer — 86.1% just confirmed it.
- [A UMA dispute locks capital ~5 days, whatever the category](/reference/resolution-lockup): When disputed at UMA, a Polymarket market runs about two resolution cycles regardless of category — an estimated 104–120 hours locked at UMA's ~60-hour cycle cadence (high-volume sample; magnitude is sample-dependent). What varies is how often a category disputes (Geopolitics 35.1% vs Sports 0.4%), so the per-dispute lockup is roughly fixed while the frequency is the real risk.

## Notes for citation

- Cite each figure with its sample and measured date; these are on-chain base-rates, not predictions. Each reference page carries its own history table and methodology link.

## Machine-readable API (for AI agents, x402 / USDC on Base)

- GET https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-risk — Polymarket UMA resolution-risk landscape (dispute x flip x clarity) by category
- GET https://api.x402intel.uk/resolution-watchlist — live markets ranked by structural resolution risk